The Framework
Rookie contracts are the best bargain in football. A first-round quarterback on the rookie wage scale earns roughly $10M less on the cap over 4 years than a comparable veteran starter would cost in free agency. We extend that idea to every position: the value of a pick is (position-market premium) × (round bust-risk multiplier) across a 4-year rookie deal. Positions with a richer veteran market (QB, EDGE, OT) produce more cap savings than positions where the free-agent market is cheaper (RB, S, LB).
This is a projected valuation — if the team hits on the pick. Busts destroy value. The multiplier on later-round picks reflects higher bust rates.
Position Base Value ($M over 4 years)
| Position | Base $M (top-10 R1) |
|---|---|
| QB | $10.00M |
| EDGE | $8.00M |
| OT | $7.00M |
| CB | $6.00M |
| WR | $6.00M |
| IDL | $5.00M |
| IOL | $5.00M |
| LB | $4.00M |
| S | $4.00M |
| TE | $3.00M |
| RB | $2.00M |
| K | $0.50M |
| P | $0.50M |
| LS | $0.25M |
Baseline: a QB taken in the top 10 = $10M savings over 4 years (franchise arms cost ~$50M/yr in FA). Scale other positions down by veteran-market scarcity.
Round / Pick Multipliers
| Pick Slot | Multiplier |
|---|---|
| Top 10 (R1 #1-10) | 1.00× |
| Mid-R1 (#11-20) | 0.80× |
| Late R1 (#21-32) | 0.65× |
| Round 2 (#33-64) | 0.45× |
| Round 3 (#65-96) | 0.28× |
| Round 4 (#97-128) | 0.18× |
| Rounds 5-7 | 0.10× |
Later picks have higher bust rates and tend to produce rotational players rather than starters, reducing their expected cap-value savings.
Team Rankings — Projected Cap Value (R1 + R2)
| # | Team | Picks & Per-Pick Value | Total $M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | Cleveland Browns | $18.3M | |
| 2 |  | New York Jets | $18.2M | |
| 3 |  | Kansas City Chiefs | $13.0M | |
| 4 |  | Las Vegas Raiders | $12.2M | |
| 5 |  | Miami Dolphins | $10.4M | |
| 6 |  | Dallas Cowboys | $9.6M | |
| 7 |  | Baltimore Ravens | $9.2M | |
| 8 |  | Arizona Cardinals | $8.8M | |
| 9 |  | Pittsburgh Steelers | $8.8M | |
| 10 |  | New York Giants | $8.7M | |
| 11 |  | Los Angeles Rams | $8.2M | |
| 12 |  | Philadelphia Eagles | $8.2M | |
| 13 |  | Houston Texans | $8.2M | |
| 14 |  | Washington Commanders | $8.0M | |
| 15 |  | New Orleans Saints | $7.6M | |
| 16 |  | Detroit Lions | $7.4M | |
| 17 |  | Chicago Bears | $7.1M | |
| 18 |  | Cincinnati Bengals | $6.8M | |
| 19 |  | New England Patriots | $6.6M | |
| 20 |  | Minnesota Vikings | $6.2M | |
| 21 |  | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | $5.9M | |
| 22 |  | Carolina Panthers | $5.3M | |
| 23 |  | Buffalo Bills | $5.2M | |
| 24 |  | San Francisco 49ers | $5.0M | |
| 25 |  | Los Angeles Chargers | $4.7M | |
| 26 |  | Seattle Seahawks | $4.5M | |
| 27 |  | Tennessee Titans | $4.2M | |
| 28 |  | Green Bay Packers | $3.6M | |
| 29 |  | Jacksonville Jaguars | $2.7M | |
| 30 |  | Atlanta Falcons | $1.8M | |
| 31 |  | Indianapolis Colts | $1.4M | |
| 32 |  | Denver Broncos | $1.4M |
Numbers are cap-value savings over the 4-year rookie deal, assuming the pick becomes a starter-level contributor. Positive value = the team is getting starter-quality production at rookie-contract prices instead of paying the veteran market rate.