The Los Angeles Rams used the 13th overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft on Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson. The selection was the night's biggest single-pick surprise. Few published boards had Simpson coming off in the top half of the first round; PFF had him at 21, Daniel Jeremiah at 28, Mel Kiper at 24. The Rams went ten-to-twenty slots earlier than any major mock had called.
The on-paper case against the pick is obvious. Matthew Stafford is signed through 2027 and is coming off the 2025 NFL MVP — a 4,612-yard, 38-touchdown season that ended in the NFC Championship Game and that the Rams have signaled they are prepared to extend further. He is 38 years old as of February. He told reporters in March he intends to play in 2026 and "as long as my body lets me." Sean McVay has publicly defended Stafford every offseason for the past three years, and inside the building he is the unambiguous No. 1 quarterback on the roster.
The internal case for the pick — the case McVay has reportedly been making privately to general manager Les Snead since February — is exactly the opposite of what the on-paper case suggests. Stafford is a year-to-year proposition at his age regardless of what he says publicly. The 2026 quarterback class is the deepest top-of-board talent the Rams will see in a Round 1 they pick this late for the next three or four years. Sitting Simpson behind Stafford for one or two years and having a turnkey successor on a fully-guaranteed rookie deal is the most cap-efficient succession plan available in the league. Sean McVay has spent his entire head-coaching career building offenses around quarterback play and has never had the opportunity to develop one from the ground up. He does now.
The Simpson tape is the part of the pick that doesn't get enough attention publicly. He started one season at Alabama after sitting behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe, and the 2025 numbers — 305-of-473 passing, 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, five interceptions, 64.5% completion rate — are exactly the kind of efficient first-year-starter line that every NFL coordinator wants out of a redshirt junior. He runs Ryan Grubb's spread, throws with anticipation, and posted a PFF passing grade of 88.1 in 2025 — the second-highest grade by a one-year SEC starter in the past decade behind only Joe Burrow's 2019. The case against him is exposure. Fifteen college starts is a small body of work, and his deep-ball accuracy in 2025 (43% on attempts of 20+ air yards) is below the threshold most NFL teams set for first-round picks.
The trade value of the pick at 13 is the other underrated story. The Rams obtained the slot in last year's draft-day trade with Atlanta — a four-pick deal that sent the No. 26 pick (the Falcons used it on Michael Penix Jr.) to Atlanta along with two picks in 2026. The Rams paid almost nothing in real terms for the right to draft a top-15 player in 2026; that calculus is exactly why McVay had the flexibility to take a long-developmental quarterback rather than a help-now defensive player.
If Stafford plays through 2027 and Simpson sits behind him for two years, the Rams exit 2027 with a 24-year-old starting quarterback on a Year-3 rookie deal — the cap structure that wins Super Bowls. If Stafford regresses or gets hurt in 2026 and Simpson plays in Week 8, the Rams exit 2026 with a year of starting tape and a quarterback whose ceiling is significantly higher than most published 2026 boards thought possible. Both outcomes are good. The downside scenario — Stafford plays at MVP level for two more years and Simpson never starts a game in Los Angeles — is also fine; you sit on a 2026 first-round QB on a rookie deal and either trade him or let him compete in 2028. McVay has the luxury of three different exit paths from a single pick. That is a lot of optionality from one slot.