The Position-Value Wars
Modern NFL analytics has spent the last decade systematically devaluing running backs. The argument: RB production is more dependent on offensive line than on individual talent, RB careers are shorter (average 2.6 NFL seasons vs 4.4 for skill positions), and the marginal cost of replacing a RB in free agency is lower than for any other position. The empirical evidence supports the argument: of the 14 RBs taken in the top-10 since 2010, exactly two (Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey) have produced positive Approximate Value over their rookie deals. The other twelve underperformed their slot.
The Saquon Comparison That Matters
Saquon Barkley (2018, Penn State, drafted #2 overall by the Giants): 6-foot, 233 pounds, 4.40-second 40-yard dash, 41-inch vertical, 11-foot-1 broad jump. Jeremiyah Love (2026, Notre Dame, drafted #3 overall by Cardinals): 6-foot, 210 pounds, 4.36-second 40 (faster than Barkley), 39.5-inch vertical (lower than Barkley), 11-foot broad jump (slightly lower). The athletic profiles are similar; Love is faster but lighter. The college production is closer than scouts initially indicated: Love's 1,876-yard, 24-touchdown 2025 season at Notre Dame matches Barkley's 2017 Penn State numbers (1,271 yards, 18 TDs) when adjusted for opponent strength.
What the Giants Got Wrong
The 2018 Giants drafted Saquon at #2 instead of Sam Darnold at #3 (Jets) or Josh Allen at #7 (Bills). The opportunity cost — eight years of losing because they didn't have a franchise QB — is the textbook case for why position-value argues against drafting RB high. Saquon was a great player; the Giants still needed Daniel Jones to lose them games. The Cardinals are now making the same trade-off in 2026: Jeremiyah Love at #3 instead of Francis Mauigoa (OT, Miami) at #3 or Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State) at #11. Kyler Murray's offensive line is bottom-10 in the NFL. Love won't fix that.
The Counter-Argument: Receiving Backs
Christian McCaffrey was drafted at #8 in 2017 to the Carolina Panthers, and is the only top-10 RB pick of the modern era to produce positive surplus value over a full rookie deal. The reason: McCaffrey is a receiving back. He produced 5.6 yards per route run as a rookie, comparable to a slot receiver. Jeremiyah Love's college tape includes 41 receptions for 481 yards and four receiving TDs in 2025 — a true receiving-back profile. If Love is a McCaffrey-type rather than a Barkley-type, the position-value math swings substantially in Arizona's favor. The first sign of which type Love is: how many routes per game he runs in his rookie season. If it's 30+, he's a McCaffrey. If it's 12-18, he's a Barkley.
The Verdict
Pick #3 for Jeremiyah Love is defensible only if (a) Arizona's offensive line gets fixed via free agency or 2027 draft, AND (b) Love is used as a McCaffrey-style receiving back rather than a Barkley-style power back. Both conditions are achievable but neither is certain. Most analytics communities have already graded the pick as a C-/D+. The Cardinals' counter-argument — that Kyler Murray needs explosive playmakers right now to stay healthy — is real but does not address the structural OL issue. The bet, fundamentally, is that Drew Petzing and the new Arizona staff have figured out a way to use Love that previous front offices have not figured out for any of the dozen failed top-10 RB picks before him. We will know within 18 months. The Cardinals, on this draft and in this slot, have no margin for error.