AJ Dybantsa Is the No. 1 Pick but Not the Rookie of the Year Favorite. Here's Why

By the DraftClassInsider staff · Published October 12, 2026 · Through the Wizards' preseason game of October 12, 2026

At a glance

Drafted: No. 1 overall on June 23, 2026, out of BYU. Washington won the lottery with a 14% chance after going 17-65.
Contract: four years and $66,914,053, at 120% of the rookie scale. He earns $14,748,000 this season, and the first two years ($30,233,760) are guaranteed.
Summer League: 27 and 23 points in two Las Vegas games, both wins, shooting 1-for-11 from three. The Wizards then shut him down.
Preseason: 13.0 points a game over three games, with 4 steals in his debut. He started the opener.
Rookie of the Year odds: fourth at DraftKings (+425) on October 8, behind Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson and Caleb Wilson.
Opening night: October 21, at home against Milwaukee.

The Pick

The Wizards finished 17-65 last season, and the lottery gave them a 14% chance at the top pick. They won it on May 10, and on June 23 at Barclays Center they took AJ Dybantsa, the BYU forward. Washington signed him on July 2 for four years and $66,914,053. That is 120% of the rookie scale, the most a team can pay a first-round pick, and the same percentage the No. 2 and No. 3 picks received. His first-year salary is $14,748,000, and the third and fourth years are team options.

Two Summer League Games, Then a Shutdown

His Las Vegas debut came against Darryn Peterson, the No. 2 pick, and Dybantsa outplayed him. He scored 27 points, 19 of them in the first half, with 7 rebounds, 2 steals and a block in a 92-88 win over Utah. "It was great to get out there and play in my first NBA game," he said, and on Peterson: "He got the best of me three times so I just wanted to come out on top." Peterson replied, "This isn't the last time we'll match up."

Two days later Dybantsa had 23 points, 7 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 blocks with no fouls in a 104-85 win over Sacramento. He was plus-18 in 24 minutes. That was his whole summer. He averaged 25.0 points and shot 13-for-33 from the field and 1-for-11 from three before the Wizards shut him down for the rest of Summer League. "That ball got a little sticky," summer coach T.J. Sorrentine said. "But you look at the stats, he ends up at 23 and he's a heck of a player."

Dybantsa focused on defense, the weakest part of his draft profile. "I've been telling my trainers I think I could be a first-team All-Defensive team guy," he told ESPN. "In college, I was being lazy a lot on the defensive end." ESPN's post-Summer League rookie rankings put him first and said he has "superstar potential." The same piece raised the question that also shows up in his betting odds: how his on-ball role fits next to Trae Young.

The Preseason So Far

He started Washington's preseason opener on October 8 at New York and scored 11 points with 4 steals and no turnovers in a 111-109 win. Coach Brian Keefe talked about his defense first: "The biggest thing is he had four steals. His effort on the defensive end, cutting people off, playing in the passing lane." He added, "You could feel his presence on the court, his ability to get into bodies, his ability to guard one on one." Dybantsa said afterward: "I always knew I had defensive potential. It was just me being lazy in college."

In the next two games he scored 14 points each: in an overtime win over Detroit, when he was second on the team in rebounds behind Anthony Davis, and in a 131-122 loss to Brooklyn on Monday. Through three games he is averaging 13.0 points on 42.4% shooting, with 1 three-pointer in 8 attempts, 6 steals and 7 assists. Washington is 2-1 in the preseason.

Why He Isn't the Favorite

The Wizards are not rebuilding around one player. Their roster includes Trae Young and Anthony Davis, and this summer they added Deandre Ayton from the Lakers and Khris Middleton in a six-team trade. Covers, summarizing the prediction-market price on October 12, said Dybantsa's odds are "largely due to potential usage concerns in Washington." DraftKings listed him fourth at +425 on October 8, behind Memphis' Cameron Boozer (+300), Utah's Darryn Peterson (+330) and Chicago's Caleb Wilson (+350). Polymarket had him third at 20%.

Washington is not hiding him either. He started the preseason opener, and the Wizards will play six nationally televised games, which WTOP noted is "one more than they played over the previous five seasons combined." Keefe's message at Media Day was "Defense is going to be the No. 1 thing." General manager Will Dawkins said, "It definitely won't be linear." Davis gave the simplest endorsement. "He's ready for it," he said, calling Dybantsa "a very special talent – can defend, can make any shot." Dybantsa said playing with veterans helps: "I feel like there's not a lot of pressure on me because I have such a great team around me."

What to Watch

October 21: his NBA debut, at home against Milwaukee. February 27 and March 6: his two regular-season games against Peterson, in Salt Lake City and then Washington. In between, the main questions are his three-point shot (2-for-19 across Summer League and the preseason) and how many touches he gets next to Young and Davis.

Our take. The No. 1 pick usually starts the season as the Rookie of the Year favorite because he usually joins a bad team with the ball available. Dybantsa joined a team that added veterans, so his numbers may trail players with bigger roles. Our expectation: he will be the best two-way player in the class by the end of the season, even if he does not lead it in scoring. Four steals and no turnovers in his first preseason game are a good start. For the No. 2 and No. 3 picks, see our Peterson vs. Boozer preview. For every 2026 rookie-scale contract, see the contract tracker.

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